“你们的天气预报怎么搞的,太没谱了!”前些天,中国气象局国家气象中心主任、中央气象台台长矫梅燕,意外地接到了一位恼怒的陌生人从机场打来的质问电话。当天,北京机场出现大雾,但天气预报没有对这次大雾作出预报,结果航班延迟,耽误了这位乘客的行程。
当矫梅燕把这件事告诉中央气象台首席预报员杨贵名时,有着二十多年预报经验的杨贵名“安慰”她说:在中央气象台会商室里,预报员经常会接到这样的电话。打电话的来自全国各地,他们的口音各异、身份不同,但他们的主题一致:天气预报“不准”。
那么,天气预报为什么有时候不准呢?
中央气象台及北京市气象台的专家告诉记者,天气预报看似简单,实际是一个浩大的系统工程。天气预报是以大气科学理论为依托,以各种气象探测手段为基础,以数值天气预报为核心,依靠预报人员的综合判断分析最终形成的。“其中的每一个环节都存在某些不确定性,不可能每一次的预报结果都与实际一致。提高天气预报的准确率,现在仍是一个世界性的难题。”
首先,人类对大气运动机理的认识还有限。阴晴冷暖、雨雪风霜,各种天气的产生和变化,都是由大气不断运动造成的。由于大气运动的复杂性,科学家们还不能真实地描述大气运动的细微结构。
其次,气象观测网络还做不到“疏而不漏”。气象探测已发展成为覆盖地基、空基、天基的立体观测系统,地面观测站、高空观测站、自动气象站、雷达观测站、气象卫星组成了时刻监视大气运动和变化的观测网。但这个网络对中小尺度的天气系统会有疏漏,就像大网捞小鱼,容易漏掉。而且观测资料可能会有误差,例如,风向、风速观测结果是采用两分钟观测的平均值,可能就会有一定的误差。
第三,数值天气预报模型不能完全模拟大气演变。天气的变化,是地球周围大气运动变化的结果,而大气运动变化,物理上要符合流体力学和热力学的一些定律,这些定律可以用数学的语言,写成数学方程。人们利用高性能计算机,把天气预报问题变成数学方程求解的问题。这样的方法叫数值天气预报,这是现代天气预报的核心。然而,目前任何一套模型都不能真实地模拟大气演变,只是近似,必然存在误差。
第四,预报员之间的经验及水平会有差异。数值模式计算出来的预报结果,不能直接作为预报结论,预报员还要进行解释应用,根据当地情况进行订正。例如北京北有燕山、西有太行山,天气预报必须考虑地形影响。预报员的个人经验也在复杂的天气预报和综合决策中起着重要作用。
天气预报是很复杂的系统工程。实际上,在发达国家,天气预报不准的现象也经常出现。20xx年,美国暴雨预报准确率也只有22%,台风路径预报误差是103千米。一个预报员说,他曾经在国外同行那里看到过一本小册子,内容是提醒气象工作人员面对公众嘲讽,如何保持心理平衡。
天气预报准的时候多,不准的时候少。可是人们对准的预报记忆不深;对不准的预报却记忆犹新,耿耿于怀。为什么会这样呢?打个比方说:气象台10次暴雨九次报对了,人们都带雨具做了预防,印象不深刻;可是没报出来的一次,许多入都挨了浇,所以怨声载道,很难忘掉。
其实,天气预报准确与否是一个相对的概念,这个相对概念中既体现了,公众对预报的理解和认知程度,还有一个就是技术能力和水平能够达到什么程度的问题。
首先,从总体科技水平和科技能力上来讲,我们现在对于一些灾害性天气的预报能力还是十分有限的,所以预报准确率也不可能达到百分之百准确。天气预报还很年轻。虽然古人在观察天象过程中积累了很多预测经验,但是气象卫星、气象雷达等先进探测仪器和计算机的应用时间并不长,基于现代科学基础上的天气预报历史相对较短,人类对于很多天气现象的发生、演变及其内在机理和规律并未完全掌握。这些因素会直接影响到预报的准确率。
其次,天气本身变化无常。围绕地球的这层厚厚的大气是个流体,也就是说,大气时时刻刻在流动着,完全摸清它的规律,似乎是不可能的事。
第三,有的天气系统具有很强的地域性。以北京为例,这么大一个城市,今天如果报了“有雨”,实际可能是东城有雨,西城没雨,这对身处不同地区的人们来说,感受大不相同,有的人会说准,有人就会说不准。而且,我们对这种阵性天气的可预报性在时间上也不可能会有很长的提前量,今天晚上的预报,要报出明天白天可能会有雷阵雨,准确说出它发生的时间,非常困难。但是雷达和气象卫星可以帮助我们做好短时和临近预报。
关于温度预报,大家也有许多误解。气象学上所说的温度是“空气温度”,简称“气温”或“温度”,是太阳照射到地面后,地面又反射到1.5米左右高度上的空气的温度。如果夏天我们直接在1.5米左右的高度用温度表测量,得到的并不是空气的温度,而是太阳直接照射的温度,这个数值要比空气温度高得多。如果我们在柏油马路上放支温度表,测得的温度就更高了。气象台为了准确地测定气温,都把温度表安放在不受太阳直接照射而又通风良好的1.5米左右高度的百叶箱里。因此,气象上的温度是以百叶箱的温度为准的。我们夏天走在炽热的太阳下总感觉气象台把温度报低了,就是这个道理。
其实,天气预报的准确率是由观测资料的疏密决定的。我国现在的探空观测站一共只有100多个,折合每200多千米才有一个探空观测站。云的生命很短,一块大的雨云可能会在10千米内将雨降完,雨没有降在观测点上,就观测不到降水。不仅探空站在空间上稀疏,在时间上也是如此,我们每天只有早7点、晚7点和凌晨1点三次施放探空气球进行观测,其他时间仅靠地面观测站进行观测。探空气球升起时如果设有遇到云,就无法预报出降水。总的来看,大气本身的复杂性使人们对大气变化的认识很难一步到位,另外预测时还受科学技术水平等的限制,因此做出准确的天气预报是一件几乎不可能完成的任务。当然,计算初可以提高预报结果的精度,但问题主要不是出在计算机上,而是出在反映大气运动规律的方程组以及求解方程组时初值的确定上。因此计算机算出来的大气方程组的解是一个精度不甚高的近似解,加之由于网距大、网点疏,捕捉天气系统如同大网捞小鱼,致使当前天气预报舞台唱主角的数值天气预报不时地出现“跑调”和“走板”。虽然预报员可以对结果进行修订,但毕竟受水平所限,难免会有“漏网之鱼”,天气预报自然有时也就不准甚至严重失误了。
Ⅰ单项选择
1.thehouseonfire,hedialed119.
A.ToseeB.SeeingC.HavingseenD.Beingseen
2.Ifelldownandbrokethreeofmyteeth.IwonderhowmanytimesIhavetocomehereandgetmyfalseteeth.
A.fixB.fixingC.fixedD.tofix
3.We'retolistentoher_voice.It'stohearhersing.
A.pleased;pleasing;pleasureB.pleased;pleasant;apleasure
C.pleasing;pleased;apleasureD.pleasing;pleasant;pleasure
4.somestamps.
A.Passed,buyingB.Passing,tobuyC.Havingpassed,buyD.Pass,tobuy
5.withthesizeofthewholeearth,thehighestmountaindoesnotseemhighatall.
A.ComparingB.TocompareC.ComparedD.Havingcompared
6.Herearesomenewcomputerprogramsforhomebuildings.
A.designingB.designC.designedD.todesign
7.alittlemoney,Jimmywasabletobuyhismotheralovelynewlamp.
A.TosaveB.SavingC.SavedD.Havingsaved
8.Theteachercameintotheclassroombyhisstudents.
A.followingB.tobefollowingC.followedD.havingfollowed.
9.Withthemoney,hecouldn'tbuyanyticket.
A.toloseB.losingC.lostD.haslost
10.Therewassomuchnoiseintheroomthatthespeakercouldn'tmakehimself.
A.beingheardB.hearingC.heardD.hear
11.Theresultofthetestwasrather.
A.disappointedB.disappointingC.beingdisappointedD.disappoint
12.I'veneverheardthewordinspokenEnglish.
A.useB.usedC.usingD.touse
13.howtodothehomework,Iwenttoaskmyteacherforhelp.
A.NottoknowB.NotknowingC.KnowingnotD.Notknown
14.Deeply,Ithankedheragainandagain.
A.beingmovingB.movedC.movingD.tobemoved
1
15.Withwinteron,it'stimetobuywarmclothes.
A.cameB.comesC.comeD.coming
16.theoffice,theforeignvisitorswereshownroundtheteachingbuilding.
A.HavingshownB.ShowingC.HasshownD.Havingbeenshown
17.Hewentfromdoortodoor,wastepapersandmagazines.
A.gatheringB.gatheredC.gatherD.beinggathered
18.Thestudentcorrectedhispapercarefully,theprofessor'ssuggestions.
A.followB.followingC.followedD.beingfollowed
19.Thepricewillsaveyouonedollarforeachdozen.
A.reduceB.reducingC.reducedD.reduces
20.Peopleinthecitydonotknowthepleasureofcountrylife.
A.liveB.toliveC.livedD.living
21.Theforeignertriedhisbest,buthestillcouldn'tmakehispoint
A.understandB.understandingC.tounderstandD.understood
22.Thescientistswerewaitingtoseetheproblem
A.settleB.settledC.tosettleD.settling
23.Thelibrary'sstudyroomisfullofstudentsfortheexam.
A.busilypreparedB.busypreparingC.busilyprepareD.arebusilypreparing
24.Thegroundiswithleaves.
A.covering,fallingB.covered,fallingC.covered,fallenD.covering,fallen
25.Lessonseasilyweresoonforgotten.
A.tolearnB.learnC.learnedD.learning
26.Thewalletseveraldaysagowasfoundinthedustbinoutsidethebuilding.
A.stolen,hiddenB.stealing,hidingC.stealing,hiddenD.stolen,hiding
27.Apersonaforeignlanguagemustbeabletousetheforeignlanguageown.
A.tolearn,toforgetB.learning,toforgetC.tolearn,forgettingD.learning,forgetting
28.differentkindsofpianos,theworkersfartherimprovedtheirquality.
A.ToproduceB.BeingproducedC.ProducedD.Havingproduced
29.Thestudentsintheuniversityarealltakingcoursesadegree.
A.comingtoB.goingtoC.leadingtoD.turningto
30.Manythingsimpossibleinthepastareverycommontoday.
A.considerB.consideringC.consideredD.beconsidered
2
31.manytimes,hestillcouldn'tunderstand.
A.HavingbeentoldB.HavingtoldC.HehavingbeentoldD.telling
32.Theoldsickladyenteredthehospital,hertwosons.
A.tosupportB.supportingC.supportedbyD.havingsupported
33.Chinaisoneofthelargestcountriesintheworld,9.6millionsquarekilometres.
A.tocoverB.coveredC.coversD.covering
34."Wemustkeepasecretofthethingsatthemanincharge
oftheinformationoffice.
A.discussed,staredseriouslyB.beingdiscussed,seriouslystaring
C.tobediscussed,seriouslystaredD.discussed,stared
35.ThevisitingMinisterexpressedhissatisfactionwiththetalks,
A.havingaddedB.toaddC.addingD.added
36."Canyouread?"Marysaidtothenotice.
A.angrilypointingB.andpointangrilyC.angrilypointedD.andangrilypointing
37.thecomposition,Johnhandedittotheteacherandwentoutoftheroom.
A.WritingB.HavingwrittenC.WrittenD.Beingwritten
38.Wereyouwhenyousawthatwildanimal?
A.frightB.frighteningC.frightenedD.frighten
39.Properlywithnumbers,thebookscanbeeasilyfound.
A.markedB.markC.tomarkD.marking
40.Thechildsatinthedentist'schair.
A.trembleB.tremblingC.trembledD.totrembled
41.Atthismomentthebellrang
A.announceB.announcingC.announcedD.toannounce
42.Hewalkeddownthehills,softlytohimself.
A.singB.singingC.sungD.tosing
43.Ihadtoshouttomakemyselfabovethenoise.
A.heardB.hearingC.heardD.tohear
44.Thegraduatingstudentsarebusymaterialfortheirreports.
A.collectB.tocollectC.collectedD.collecting
45.ThecarsinBeijingareasgoodasthoseinShanghai.
A.produce,produceB.produced,produced
C.produced,producingD.producing,producing
46.WhenIcamein,IsawDr.Liapatient.
A.examineB.examiningC.toexamineD.examined
3
47.asatisfactoryoperation,thepatientrecoveredfromillnessveryquickly.
A.HavingbeengivenB.HavinggivenC.GivingD.Beinggiven
48.asatisfactoryoperation,thedoctorbelievedthepatientwouldrecoverfromhisillness
verysoon.
A.HavingbeengivenB.HavinggivenC.GivingD.Beinggiven
49.HewrotealettertomethathistriptoJapanhadbeenputoffbecauseofthebadweather.
A.informB.informingC.informedD.beinginformed
50.Hereadsnewspaperseverydaytokeephimself__aboutwhat'sgoingonintheworld.
A.informB.informingC.informedD.beinginformed
Ⅱ.用适当的非谓语动词形式填空
1.Shecaughtthestudent(cheatinexams.
2.WhenIgotthere,Ifoundhim(repairfarmtools.
3.WhenIgotthere,Ifoundthefarmtools.(repair
4.Justthenheheardsomeone
5.Heworkedsohardthathegothispay
6.Themissingboyswerelastseen(playneartheriver.
7.His__________(frightenexpressionmadehiswife__________(surprise.
8.Theworkershadthemachines(runallnightlongtofinishtheworkontime.
9.Peopleinthesouthhavetheirhouses(makeofbamboo.
10.(loseinthought,healmostranintothecarinfrontofhim.
Ⅲ.改写下列句子,其划线部分应改为分词短语
1.Gentlemenalwaysshakehands
2.Acoldrainwasfalling.
3.Theoldmanwalkedslowly.
4.Theground
5.Thereisatalltree
考辅P42
1. I gave Tom the book. //
2. He bought his mother some flowers. //
3. The bridge was built by workers last year.//
4. We have to finish the work today. //5. He will do his homework tomorrow. //
6. We clean the rooms every day. //7. The writer spent 3 years on the book. //
8. It is a book with a lot of beautiful pictures.//
9. The book sold very well during the first week. //first week.
10. Mary was the only one in the office. //
11. She finished her work at 10 o’clock. //She didn’12. She had to take a taxi home because it was too late.
13. Liza and Mike arrived at the Great Wall in two hours.
14. They were happy to get to the top.//
15. They enjoyed themselves on the Great Wall.//
16. The postman sent Susan and Tommy a paper box.
17. They opened it and found a present from their friend.
18. They both liked the present and felt very happy.
19. Alice didn’t feel well today, so she went to the hospital.
20. The doctor asked her some questions. //
21. The doctor didn’t give her any medicine in the end.
(全真1)
1. The capital Airport has been in use for 20 years. //
2. The capital Airport is the largest one in China. //
3. I have never taken a plane. My friend Li Ping , either. //
(全真2)
1. Father gave $20 for me to buy some books. //
2. I was excited when I saw so many good books in the bookstore.
3. But some books would cost more than I have. //
But I didn’//(全真3)
1. Many Chinese friends went to the party. 2. Tony was given a lot of presents by his friends. //Tony’
3. Seeing his Chinese teacher at the party made Tony very happy. //(全真4)
1. I want to eat something. //2. The refrigerator is empty.//3. Bob spent fifteen yuan on the hamburger. ///(全真5)
1. Mr.Wang doesn’t work in that factory any longer. //
2. Mr. Wang left home earlier in order to catch the bus. 3. Mr. Wang finds it not easy to get along with that young guy. //(专家1)
1. Many people went shopping yesterday.
2. Jane spent 4 hours to buy New year gifts. //
3. She was so tired that she couldn’t walk any longer. //
(专家2)
1. My friends said to me, “Are you free?”
2. She wanted me to go shopping with her.
3. She thinks it a pleasure to go shopping with a friend.
来到护林房跟前,小猕猴看到小燕子在护林房周围飞来飞去,小猕猴高声喊道:“小燕子,要下雨了,快回家吧,淋湿了翅膀你就回不了家了。”
“谢谢你,小猕猴!”小燕子说,“我知道要下雨了,我要趁雨前这段时间多吃点东西,不然的话,下起了雨,我就要挨饿了。”
“那你飞得高一点,飞得这么低,很容易被猎人捉住的。”
“我会小心的。”小燕子说,“下雨前,空气里水汽很多,把一些昆虫的翅膀弄湿了,就像飞机荷重过大一样,昆虫飞不动了,但它们还要飞,那就只能接近地面飞。所以我们只好飞得低一些才能捉到虫子。”
“噢,原来是这样。”小猕猴对小熊说,“看来,很多动物都有预报天气的本领呢。”
“是呀。”小熊说,“我还知道蝉也能预报天气呢。”
小猕猴说:“快说给我听听”
小熊说:“蝉的叫声是由它腹部发音器的薄膜振动而发出的。据我观察,夏天由雨转晴前2小时左右,蝉就叫,而晴天转阴雨时,蝉不叫。我曾请教过蝉,他们说,这是因为下雨前,它们的发音薄膜潮湿,振动不灵。相反,天气转好,空气干燥,薄膜振动就有力。”
听到这里,小猕猴高兴地说:“小熊,你帮我把预报天气的知识总结一下好吗?”
“这有什么好总结的,又不能吃!”小熊有些不情愿。
小猕猴把被雨淋感冒的经过以及想预报天气的想法告诉了小熊。小熊愉快地答应了。
这时,豆大的雨点落下来了,小猕猴和小熊赶忙跑到护林员的房子里。他们坐在护林员的床上,仔细总结着预报天气的知识。后来,他们又多方努力,收集到更多天气预报知识,为了便于山林居民记忆,他们还把这些知识编成了儿歌。很多路过这座山林的人,都曾经听到过一只小猕猴在唱:请听,天气预报:
青蛙上岸鱼儿跳,
蜜蜂归巢蝉不叫,
燕子低空飞,
狗儿泡水澡,
快快快快往家跑,
大雨不久就来到。
直到现在,这首儿歌还在这座山林中传唱。
英语改写句子练习题(适合初中生)
根据上句完成下句,使两句话的意思相同或相一致,每空一词
1. Nancy is too young to dress herself.
Nancy is not _____ _____ to dress herself.
2. My watch doesn't work well.
There is ____ _____ _______ my watch.
3. Jane doesn't go to work by bus any longer.
Jane ____ _____ _____ to work by bus.
4. It took Mary two weeks to prepare for the exam.
Mary _____two weeks____ ______ for the exam.
5. It seems that they have known each other.
They seem to _____ _____ each other.
6. "My grandpa doesn't like coffee or coke" said Bob
Bob said that _____grandpa liked _____coffee _____coke.
7. Cao Fei joined the League three years ago.
Cao Fei _____ ____ _____ the League for three years.
8. I prefer walking there to going by bus.
I prefer to walk there ____ _____ going by bus.
9. -Thank you very much. -You're welcome.
- ____ a lot. -Not at____ .
10. Kitty does well in English.
Kitty ____ ____ ____ English.
11. They realized Hainan was a beautiful place after they reached there.
They____ realize Hainan was a beautiful place_____ they reached there.
12. We will have to finish the work hardly if you don't help us. We can't finish the work _____ _____ ______
13. My dictionary isn't so thick as yours.
My dictionary is _____ than yours.
14. Could you tell me where the East Street Hospital is? Excuse me, ____ is the _____ to the East Street Hospital?
15. The book is exciting to read.
It is ____ _____ read the book.
16. Jack's mother asked him, "Have you packed your things?" Jack's mother asked him ____ he ____ packed his things.
17. She likes singing better than dancing. She ____ singing ____ dancing.
18. Remember to ring me up as soon as you get to Nanjing Make ____ to give me a ring as soon as you _____ Nanjing.
19. They couldn't catch the train because of the heavy traffic. The heital?
15. The book is exciting to read.
It is ____ _____ read the book.
16. Jack's mother asked him, "Have you packed your things?" Jack's mother asked him ____ he ____ packed his things.
17. She likes singing better than dancing. She ____ singing ____ dancing.
18. Remember to ring me up as soon as you get to Nanjing Make ____ to give me a ring as soon as you _____ Nanjing.
19. They couldn't catch the train because of the heavy traffic. The heavy traffic _____ them from _____ the train.
20. My brother has been away from home for two days.
My brother _____ home two days _____ .
21. Li Lei decided to move to Canada when he was thirty.
Li Lei made a _____ to move to Canada at the _____ of thirty.
22. Jim was too careless to pass the exam last term.
Jim was not_____ _____ to pass the exam last term.
23. If you don't hurry up, you can't catch the train.
Hurry up, _____ you may _____ the train.
24. Yang Li wei said to us, "I'm going to visit your school tomorrow. " We were all pleased.
We were all pleased when we heard Yang Li wei_____ visit_____ school the next day.
25. This is the most interesting film I have ever seen. I have ____seen _____ an interesting film before.
26. I was late for school because of the traffic accident. The traffic accident _____ me _____ getting to school on time.
走在路上,我时不时抬头看看天空,看到太阳一直高高地悬挂在天上,根本没有要下雨的感觉。于是,我对妈妈说:“妈妈,你错了,根本不会下雨。”妈妈说:“是啊,现在是不会下,不过等下就会下小雨了。”这让我更加不解了:“这是谁说的?妈妈怎么知道呢?”妈妈哈哈大笑::“我就是知道啊。”
看完精彩绝伦,惟妙惟肖的儿童画展,真得感叹一下这些画家们炉火纯青的技术。不过,我看了看天上,还是没有下雨的迹象,看来妈妈失策了。突然,一个调皮的水滴落在了我的鼻尖,咦,是不是要下雨了?不一会儿,淅淅沥沥的雨就开始下了起来,我高兴地欢呼:“妈妈,你看,真的`下雨了!真的下雨了!妈妈真厉害!”于是,我们撑起预先准备好的雨伞,高高兴兴地回家了。
回到家,我们看到爸爸正在收拾行李,原来爸爸今天要坐飞机去出差。晚上的时候,我来到妈妈房间,说:“今天爸爸出差,我要和妈妈睡。”谁知我刚往床上一躺,就听见开门的声音,原来是爸爸回来了。我赶紧出门去迎接爸爸,爸爸告诉我:“出差时间改了,今晚是雷电天气,乘飞机不安全。”我一头雾水,可是现在没有打雷和闪电呐。
“现在是没有,可是晚上可能就会有了。”
“为什么?谁说的?爸爸怎么知道?”
“你不信啊,就等着看吧。”
晚上,我睡的正香,一阵“轰隆隆”的声音把我的美梦吵醒了。我吓得跑到了爸爸妈妈的房间,爸爸跟我说:“我说的没错吧,真的在打雷,还在下暴雨。”我百思不得其解,缠着爸爸妈妈一直问:“你们怎么都知道?不行,你们一定要告诉我!”这下,我才知道,原来是天气预报说的。
爸爸妈妈每天都会准时收看天气预报,这样就能提前知道天气变化了。于是,我带着强烈的好奇心,跟着爸爸妈妈一起看天气预报。
“哇!还能看到北京的天气呢。”
“对啊,不止北京哦,还有很多城市的天气情况都能从天气预报里知道,而且还有世界上其他国家的天气情况,都能从天气预报里知道。”
我惊叹不已,天气预报员的叔叔一定是超人。
爸爸妈妈听了哈哈大笑,天气预报是由科学家们用仪器测出来,然后再告诉电视台的天气预报员叔叔,再由预报员叔叔告诉我们,可不是什么超人。
妈妈说:“从现在起,你就是我们家的小小天气预报员了,今后每天收看天气预报的重任就交给我了。”我满心欢喜地接受了这个任务。
天气预报真是神奇,这样我们就能方便地知道每天的天气情况了,不过天气预报有时候还是有点不准哦!
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