凯恩斯认为,当就业量增加时,总所得也随之增加。然而社会往往会出现这样一种情况:总的真实所得增加时,总消费量也在增加,但没有所得增加德那么快。这是一个心里法则,无论从人性来看,还是从具体事实来看,这都是毫无疑问的。他详细列举了影响消费倾向的`客观、主观因素。客观因素主要包括:工资单位的改变,所得与净所得差别的改变,在计算所得时没有考虑到资本价值的意外改变,时间贴现率的改变,财政政策的改变等;主观因素则包括:人性的心理特征,社会习俗和社会制度等。
一位父亲有几个孩子,这些孩子时常发生口角。他丝毫没有办法来劝阻他们,只好让他们看看不合群所带来害处的例子。为了达到这个目的,有一天他叫他们替他拿一捆细柴来。当他们把柴带来时,他便先后地将那捆柴放在每一个孩子的手中,吩咐他们弄断这捆柴。他们一个个尽力去试,总是不能成功。
然后他解开那捆柴,一根根地放在他们手里,如此一来,他们便毫不费力地折断了。于是他就告诉他们说:「孩子们!如果你们大家团结一致,互相帮助,你们就像这捆柴一样,不能被你们的敌人折断;但如果你们自行,你们就将和这些散柴一般,不堪一折了。」
The fox, filled with arrogance, examined the cat from head to feet, and for a long time did not know whether he should give an answer. At last he said, "Oh, you poor beard-licker, you speckled fool, you hungry mouse hunter, what are you thinking? Have you the nerve to ask how I am doing? What do you know? How many tricks do you understand?"
"I understand but one," answered the cat, modestly.
"What kind of a trick is it?" asked the fox.
"When the dogs are chasing me, I can jump into a tree and save myself."
"Is that all?" said the fox. "I am master of a hundred tricks, and in addition to that I have a sackful of cunning. I feel sorry for you. Come with me, and I will teach you how one escapes from the dogs."
Just then a hunter came by with four dogs. The cat jumped nimbly up a tree, and sat down at its top, where the branches and foliage completely hid her.
"Untie your sack, Mr. Fox, untie your sack," the cat shouted to him, but the dogs had already seized him, and were holding him fast.
"Oh, Mr. Fox," shouted the cat. "You and your hundred tricks are left in the lurch. If you been able to climb like I can, you would not have lost your life."
一只猫在森林里遇到一只狐狸,心想:“他又聪明,又丰富,挺受人尊重的。”於是它很友好地和狐狸打招呼:“日安,尊敬的狐狸先生,您好吗?这些日子挺艰难的,您过得怎么样?”
狐狸傲慢地将猫从头到脚地打量了一番,半天拿不定主意是不是该和它说话。最后它说:“哦,你这个倒霉的长着鬍子、满身花纹的傻瓜、饥肠辘辘地追赶老鼠的.傢伙,你会啥?有甚么资格问我过得怎么样?你都学了点甚么本事?”
“我只有一种本领。”猫谦虚地说。
“甚么本领?”狐狸问。
“有人追我的时候,我会爬到树上去藏起来保护自己。”
“就这本事?”狐狸不屑地说,“我掌握了上百种本领,而且还有满口袋计谋。我真觉得你可怜,跟着我吧,我教你怎么从追捕中逃生。”
就在这时,猎人带着四条狗走近了。猫敏捷地窜到一棵树上,在树顶上蹲伏下来,茂密的树叶把它遮挡得严严实实。
“快打开你的计谋口袋,狐狸先生,快打开呀!”猫冲着狐狸喊道。可是猎狗已经将狐狸扑倒咬住了。“哎呀,狐狸先生,”猫喊道,“你的千百种本领就这么给扔掉了!假如你能像我一样爬树就不至於丢了性命了!”
凯恩斯把一种资本资产的未来收益与它的供给价格之间的关系称之为这种资本资产的.资本边际效率。资本资产的未来收益,是从资本资产在所生产的生产物的价值中,减去为取得该生产物而支付的开支之后的剩余额。凯恩斯认为,因为经济体系的现状是完全被动的、确定的,所以,对于未来的种种不同看法足以影响目前的情况。也可以这么说,经济体系的现状是利益主体关于未来看法的函数,人们对于未来种种情况的预期是自变量,而经济体系目前的状况是因变量。因此人们在研究实际时间中运行的经济过程时,与被动的、确定的现状相比,肯定对主动的、不感兴趣的未来更感兴趣。因此,凯恩斯特别强调预期的重要意义,这一点给后来的理性预期学派开辟了道路,对于现实生活的种种行为提供了很强大的解释力!
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